It seems to me that if they spread out from each other, so a predator could only eat one in every bite, any single fish is safer because it’s less likely to be that single one, whereas if they’re huddled together and the predator can gobble ten at a time, the likelihood for any single fish being eaten in a bite is 10x higher.
I understand if the optics of a school are designed to look big and maybe scare off predators, but it’s always been phrased to me as if the “game theory” for a single fish makes it safer to pack in with others.
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The only defence for the small fish is to swirl around in a large ball to confuse the attackers. The bigger the ball, and the faster it swirls, the harder it is to pick off an individual fish.
There was a wildlife programme on a while ago that showed a ball of small fish (sardines?) trying to escape attacks from seals and barracuda. The barracuda just swam into the ball as fast as possible, snatching anything that got in their way. The seals worked together to scatter the prey into much smaller groups outside of the main ball, keeping them separate and thus making it easier to pick off individual fish.
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