It seems to me that if they spread out from each other, so a predator could only eat one in every bite, any single fish is safer because it’s less likely to be that single one, whereas if they’re huddled together and the predator can gobble ten at a time, the likelihood for any single fish being eaten in a bite is 10x higher.
I understand if the optics of a school are designed to look big and maybe scare off predators, but it’s always been phrased to me as if the “game theory” for a single fish makes it safer to pack in with others.
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It’s not usually so much scaring a predator as confusing it. A predator has to be very big to eat 10 of them at a time; usually, they’re trying to single out a target to eat and once the school starts swarming and circling the predator, it becomes very hard for them to pick out a single time in the school. Imagine that you’re in a very crowded concert or a mall or something, and you’re trying to reach a single, specific person in the crowd.
As for game theory, the survival of one fish is higher if it’s harder to spot them in a crowd, and it’s harder for them to get spotted as the target if they’re not alone. Plus, the crowd makes it easier to breed and to find food of their own.
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