We can tell when something will absolutely make it through, and when something will absolutely not make it through. We determine it based on what its made of, how fast its going, how dense it is, and what angle it enters the atmosphere.
But as you get closer to the middle of the two things, it becomes less clear. A 5m iron meteor will always make it through the atmosphere. A 3m rocky meteor never will. But what about a 4m meteor made of both iron and rock?
There are still too many variables to determine, for sure, the exact conditions required for it to reach the earth or burn up.
This is the closest we can get: https://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/ which is pretty good, but not exact.
Burning up in the atmosphere or making it to the ground in one piece aren’t the only possible outcomes. Sometimes meteors explode in the atmosphere, [as happened with the Tunguska event in 1908](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event). If the meteor makes it to the ground but not in one piece, does that count?
There are some that are so big they will always make it through, and some that are so small they will never make it through, but there’s actually a very large middle area where there are too many variables to know. For example, things like the size, shape, composition, structure, speed, and angle of entry into the atmosphere are all factors, so there’s no one single line where you say on this side it will burn up and on the other it will impact.
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