We can tell when something will absolutely make it through, and when something will absolutely not make it through. We determine it based on what its made of, how fast its going, how dense it is, and what angle it enters the atmosphere.
But as you get closer to the middle of the two things, it becomes less clear. A 5m iron meteor will always make it through the atmosphere. A 3m rocky meteor never will. But what about a 4m meteor made of both iron and rock?
There are still too many variables to determine, for sure, the exact conditions required for it to reach the earth or burn up.
This is the closest we can get: https://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/ which is pretty good, but not exact.
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