Bayesian Reasoning

Question

Bayesian Reasoning

In: Other

Answer 1

There are two “interpretations” of statistics.

One that sees probabilities as something thats inherent to an event (e.g. you roll a dice, chance to get a 6 is 1/6, thats inherent to rolling dice.)

The other reasoning sees probability as something depending on the observer – e.g you look a lt a cloud and guess that its 50/50 that it’ll rain tomorow.
Then you check some satelite footage, get good data, and find out that its actually 90%. Nothing you did changed whether it actually rains or not, just your information and thus the probabilities ascribed by you changed.

Bayesian reasoning refers to the latter. Bayes created a bunch of equations to deal with changing information and how they affect probabilities, that nowadays are extremely important in science and engineering.