confusing probability?

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You are in a lucky draw there is a 0.02% chance that you can win you have 10 tickets. From logic we can say that 0.02 power 10 but should I not have a higher chance of winning the lucky draw can you please explain.

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Anonymous 0 Comments

“0.02 power 10” is probability of win on every ticket. which is indeed very low.

chance of win on at least one ticket is 1-(1-0.0002)^10

(1-0.0002) is chance of loss on one ticket (0.0002 = 0.02%)

(1-0.0002)^10 is chance of loss on every ticket

1-(1-0.0002)^10 is chance of opposite event, i.e. at lest one win.

With low-probability events like yours, you can use 10*0.0002 = 0.2% as an approximation. It is not exact, but it is close enough.

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