Do chances get higher over time?


You know how people say that there is a “chance in 100 that every person” but does that mean that if you are person 100, your chances are higher?

In: Mathematics

No, chances are the same for every trial. There is a real possibility that none of the hundred will be the one, or that more than one in the particular hundred will be whatever the test result is.

The odds (chances) are actually the statistics of the “perfect” population. Which means that if there is a 5% chance of being blonde, that would mean 5 in every hundred people would be blonde.

However, in the real world, what this means is that every individual person has a five percent chance of being blonde, it doesn’t matter what person number 1 or number 99 is, the chance is the same.

This is how I always explained it to my stats kids: the coin doesn’t care if it’s been flipped once or a hundred times; there’s always a 50% chance that it’ll be heads.

It depends on your practise.

If you have a bag of peas and beans. There are 50 peas and fifty beans in the bag. The initial one you choose is an even chance. However, in removing one and not replacing it, you have altered the proportion to 49/50, and the probability has changed.

The general population has a 50% chance of being a girl or a boy (for the sake of simplicity ignoring outliers). So taking a random person off the street, they are equally likely to be either. However, when you put them in your van, you have ever so slightly adjusted the population you can select from, so your next victim has a slightly different chance of being a girl or a boy.