Ok, obviously the chances of having a single child of a given gender are roughly 50/50. However, if you have three children and the first two are F, does it become statically more likely to produce a male with the third child? I understand the events are independent, so, it shouldn’t, however, I am curious how set theory applies in this case. The same could be said about flipping a coin, two heads in a row…the third flip should be 50/50, but does set theory apply in this case?
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Being independent, the probability of a third head after two consecutive heads is 50/50. But the probability of the first two being heads was one-in-four. When that happens, the mind tends to conflate the notion of potentially being in the midst of a one-in-eight event with the next flip being a 50/50 that only happens after a one-in-four event has occurred.
Nobody becomes interested in the third flip being heads if the prior flips were both tails or one of each, because it isn’t a run. But statistically it’s all the same.
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