eli5: can someone explain what is theoretical probability and experimental? I searched it up but the explanations seems too complex
In: Mathematics
Theoretical probability is the probability that comes from the perfect distribution. If you roll a die, the odds of a value of 1-3 is 50%, *exactly*.
Experimental probability is the *observed* probability distribution for a given set of attempts. For example, if you rolled a die 10 times, and 6 of them were 1-3, then that same *experimental* probability is 60%.
If you repeat an experiment enough times, the experimental probability should converge onto the theoretical probability. If it doesn’t, the theoretical probability doesn’t actually describe the situation you are looking at. Regardless, the core difference is, theoretical is an abstract value that exists *completely separate* from the outcome (10 heads in a row won’t change a 50% chance), while the experimental is based entirely on evaluating the observed outcomes and describing the underlying probability there from.
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