A few things:
1. They are right the majority of the time
2. Modern flu vaccines target multiple variants, so if they guess wrong on one, you’ve still got protection against the others
3. This is a self selecting bias: it’s more that sometimes a strain gets missed; the others still exist and would have spread more without the vaccine
4. Because the vaccines are multivalent, they create a much more robust immune response in most people
5. vaccines are not binary — you become more protected with a vaccine.
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