Eli5 – How are news channels able to project a winner in elections with a very small percentage of votes counted?
In: 4
There’s a lot of granular statistical analysis that goes on behind the scenes that can give a better vision than just “percentage of votes counted.” For example, while 5% of a state’s votes might be recorded, 40% of that could come from a typically conservative district and show a sharp swing towards a progressive party, indicating other seats will be even more demonstrative.
Also, few respectable outlets will put their cards down and “call” a result until a majority of votes are counted. They make projections based on probability and refine it as it goes on, mostly because most outcomes preserve a status quo and so that assumption is a good place to start.
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