Someone says “you have 1 out of 370 chances to win a bottle of water”
and you win 2 consecutive times in a row, what does that mean? i’m lucky or the probability is wrong?
In: Mathematics
Probability is just pointing out the likelihood of something happening. Its not a set law that has to be obeyed. Its unlikely if you flip a coin 100 times you’ll get heads every time. But it can happen.
And interestingly using that coin analogy, the odds of landing heads 100 times in a row is 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 (according to google) That’s a disgustingly high number. But when you go to flip that coin the 100th time, it doesn’t matter what that huge number says , none of the flips before have any effect on this one right now. Its 50/50 no more no less.
Personally probabilities are a little weird. Like when they say you have a 1 in X chance of being struck by lightning, eaten by a shark, etc. They’re taking into account all of humanity versus the numbers affected. But if I live in in a land locked country and never go in the ocean how do i have the same probability of being eaten by a shark as someone who lives in south Africa and surfs every day? They can be misleading.
Its just luck. 1 in 370 twice is unlikely, but the second time you win isn’t effected by the first. Still 1 in 370.
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