Nah, it’s not a logical process.
By tradition, it’s actually the same Dalai Lama, just reborn into a new body.
The High Lamas of the Gelugpa tradition and the Tibetan government have to look for him in his new body after he dies. It might take a while (this one took four years).
They look for signs, interpret their dreams and so on.
When they find a child of the right age, they will test them to see if they really are the Dalai Lama through tests, such as seeing if they recognise objects which belong to the Dalai Lama.
If there is more than one candidate, then they will draw lots to decide which one is the real Dalai Lama.
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