Eli5 How do weather forecasts differentiate whether it will remain cloudy or the clouds will lead to rain?

Question

How do we know that it will remain cloudy but won’t rain? Or if the clouds will surmount to any precipitation?

In: 121

Answer 1

Weather forecasting models simulate the atmosphere on the level where clouds form. If we have a forecast for temperature and pressure there, we can predict if the clouds can hold onto water or if it’s too much and it will rain.