Eli5: How do you predict weather long term

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I get that for the weather forecast they use barometers for air pressure, a Doppler radar for weather fronts, but these are all short term. Farmers almanac (amongst others) can claim to know weather years in advance. How?
They site solar science, climatology, meteorology and 30 year rolling average. How do account for climate change? What about climate anomalies?

In: Mathematics

3 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

It’s a guess, nothing more. Even with the best simulations we can guess about two weeks into the future and only for the next two or three days we have quiet certain results. Within 24 hours its quiet accurate.

Everything else will prove itself about as often as it disproves: a 50:50 chance in guessing.

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