Basically title, because I saw an article from BBC that a few people tried to seize power in Germany. Do they get the power just by occupying the building? Do other states recognise this? What happens to the constitution and the law? Is is a lawless state while they create a new constitution?
In: 794
[CGP Grey did a great video several years ago based off of Bruno de Mesquita’s *The Dictator’s Handbook*.](https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs) The ELI5 version of the book, which Grey gives in his 18 minute video, boils down to the fact that a “Ruler”, whether that ruler is a President, King, Emir, or CEO, cannot unilaterally impose their will upon their domain. They need help from key players to make things work. You can call these people the “Keys to Power”, and for a state they often include the military, police, captains of industry, and tax collectors. In a modern democratic republic, these might also be key electoral demographics and elected officials (think the Black vote or powerful and influential members of Congress in the US). If you upset these keys to power, you run the risk of them deciding that they might be better with someone else at the head of the organization. When enough of these Keys decide to change sides, we call that a “coup d’état”, which is French for “cut” or “strike of state”, meaning someone has decided to make some form of hit or attack at the very structure of the state. This need not necessarily involve force, as bloodless coups are a thing. Certain coups can even be legal, as the removal of the head of state by something like the impeachment process in the US can be thought of as a coup by Congress against the President.
The biggest problem with your question is that there’s no single way any coup works. The political context is different across both states and time. The President of Peru just attempted a coup against his own government, trying to dissolve the Peruvian Congress, and the Congress responded with a counter-coup, removing him from power, placing him under arrest, and installing the Vice President as the new President. In Ukraine we see Vladimir Putin attempting to annex part off the country while simultaneously affecting régime change to create a more Moscow-friendly government, rather than the current government that is increasingly friendly to and within the sphere of influence of the West. President Donald Trump attempted a coup against Congress when he tried to subvert the 2020 presidential election and set a bloodthirsty mob against Congress. The list of coups in the world, both attempted and successful, are as long as history itself, and it all boils down to a naked display of power. So what makes a coup work is not someone as simple as occupying a building or giving yourself a title; it’s getting others to believe and recognize that you do in fact have that power. It’s a system of patronage and promised reward and deft maneuvering to get the important people, whether they’re generals or voters or other heads of state, to support you, then consolidating power and keeping your system of promises from being spread too thin that you can no longer balance everything with yourself at the center. The German system of government exists because the German people agree that it exists, and no amount of sit ins or angry shouting from the Bundestag was going to change that.
I do not believe the alleged coup in Germany had anything to do with seizing complete power over the state. The people doing this were noted as believers of several conspiracies, boiling down to “The people in power do not wish you well, democracy is orchestrated etc etc”. This means that, most likely, they were just planning to take those “bad guys” out, so they don’t corrupt the country any more and everything can continue perfectly and democratically, while everybody regards them as heroes. Now, I know that most of the things I said do not follow a cohesive logical path, but those are the hypothetical thoughts of a violent conspiracy theorist group. Source: I live in Germany and am personally connected with people deep into conspiracies.
I would watch the video by CGP grey The rules for rulers. He does an amazing job of explaining it [The rules for rulers](https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs)
If the people, police, and military follow your rules, you’re a government. There are different ways to get people to follow your rules. Wealth and popular support are useful, but ultimately it’s the fact that those translate into the capability and willingness to enforce your rules through violence that carries a government into power.
Your local police probably won’t stop enforcing laws just because the leadership in the capitol get killed, at least not immediately. If there’s no central government for extended periods of time they may decide they ARE the government of the area they control.
It comes down to the will of the military or the people. If the deposed individuals/party fear they will be killed by a united military junta, and have no military support of their own, they will generally accept exile instead of execution. What choice do they have? In other cases, with a divided or small military, the threat of popular revolution is the biggest fear.
In Myanmar, the military had the power and was confident they could crush any popular rebellion.
In Tsarist Russia, the revolutionary Red Army had more soldiers than the Tsarist White Army (mostly officers and Cossack mercenaries) and the support of the people.
In pre-Communist Cuba, Castro’s guerillas had the support of the people.
Realistically? Who the military is allegiant to, and who is paying the checks of the military.
If you’re interested in this topic I recommend The Dictator’s Handbook, it discusses a lot of real examples of how these things happen.
Time to whip out Shriner’s “Rise and Fall of the Third Reich”
You don’t even need to remove people in power in the current government. You just need to make them not matter.
Let’s say you go to school. Your teachers tell you what to do and the principal tells them what to do. The principal was placed there by the school board voting. Your principal gets on the intercom every morning giving announcements. He also signs the checks for teachers.
Let’s say you wanted to be principal so you ask to be voted in by the board. The board says no. But you and your friends aren’t having it. So you walk into the principals office while he’s in the bathroom and you give the morning announcements and announce you are the new principal.
The principal is locked out of his office and your friends try to put him in detention. He calls out for the security guard to stop your friends but the security guard has been tricked into checking on a report of drugs in a locker.
The principal gets in his car and drives off before he’s beaten up by children.
You call the security guard over the phone and inform him he’s been let go, you will have his last check brought to him in person at the principal’s office.
The secretary, loyal to the old principal, threatens to spank you. You take her computer, files, chair, and desk. Then you inform her she is fired and you rip up her check right in front of her. She leaves to go find the security guard.
You call up the lunch lady and inform her the secretary and principal are fired for stealing money. The board has entrusted you with the job until they pick a replacement. The lunch lady shrugs and accepts her new position.
You have already hired a new security guard who is just showing up today. He’s grabs check from the new secretary and is given orders not to let the old principal or secretary back on the grounds.
The former guard arrives and receives his final check. He’s angry and wants to talk to the new principal. He accepts defeat when the new guard is called in to escort him out.
Some of your friends make a field trip to the board members. They explain that votes were lost and you were the rightful winner of the election. They should be happy you are the new winner since the old principal was stealing money. Some of the members had problems with the old principal. They voted for the principal only because the vote wasn’t anonymous and the principal and some board members would have tried to retaliate for not voting their way. One is asked to come to the school and take a look at the new way of things. The board president, however, is the uncle of the principal and he is not going to like this. Instead of telling him about the coup, you take his phones and lock him in his house.
Teachers show up and some are happy to see the old principal go while others are outraged. They got perks from the old principal and are concerned they weren’t even informed of this change. These angry teachers are told to go to the gym where everything will be explained.
Meanwhile the old principal and secretary are calling the police and the school board. The police arrive at the school. They are asking teachers about what’s going on. Some teachers say the old principal was fired for stealing. Others say the kids are crazy. Others are confused. The loyal teachers are still at the gym waiting. The new guard shows up and tells them it’s all good here. The police aren’t totally clueless though and they are aware the kids weren’t voted in. However, you suggest they call the board to confirm.
You give them a list of board members to call and the principal gives a list as well. The police call these members up. Some confirm you are the principal and the old one was fired. The police aren’t able to reach the board president though. The old secretary suggests the police look at the old minutes to confirm everything.
At this point the police are not doing anything until something is confirmed. You demand the teachers get back to class or be fired. The teachers happy with the change head off. To prove a point, you fire the newest teacher whose against you and have the guard escort her away. She looks to the police and they shrug. “If he’s not principal, you’re not fired so don’t worry about it” one says. She cries anyway as she drives off in her Kia Rio. The confused teachers scramble away and more and more of the unhappy teachers go back to class reluctantly.
The loyal teachers in the gym are going to be discovered soon but your new board friend shows up. He asks one teacher to talk privately. When they go outside, the guard is already there waiting to escort her off the grounds. She’s fired. The board member walks back into the gym and lets them all know that the old principal was caught stealing money and some teachers may have assisted him in the scheme. One teacher was just fired for this and everyone else is on a paid leave for 3 days while the forensic accountants find the other accomplice. They cannot go back to their classes and their computers are being seized. They need to provide login credentials since it is not their property but the schools and is now evidence.
The old principal is now driving to his uncle’s house and the old secretary is attempting to retrieve the minutes. Class is still in session and teachers are going about their lessons. Some students from the old classes are being distributed among the other classes. Others are sent to the gym to watch Disney movies. Your old bully is sent to detention.
You call some of the on the fence board members at this point and inform them that there’s evidence they were part of the money stealing scheme. You only have 2 of 6 members on your side. You need 2 more. One board member was already stealing money and knew this so he was a bit nervous. You offer to accidently lose the emails and receipts implicating him in exchange for being cool with this whole thing and that you’re just as generous as the old principal. He agrees. 1 more vote. This board member hasn’t been stealing and is not a fan of letting a kindergartener run a school. Being accused of stealing is also not fun. You let him know the principal has already been arrested for stealing. Call him and see. You get a call back and the board member says he doesn’t need this shit. No cussing, you reply. You’ve got the votes you need to make your rule official but that last vote is going to disappear when he learns the truth.
No worries though. You’ve got control of the laptops and invoices. $1000 was paid out in cash to a field trip last year. There’s permission slips to prove this as well as receipts. Not anymore! You also make an email from the old principal to school board president. The fired teacher is cc’d on it. “Let’s use some cash to buy drugs” the email reads. You send this all to the police, and quickly!
By now the old principal and police are both converging on the board president’s house. After some back and forth, no one is arrested but the incident is recorded by your friends and sent to the remaining board members. The convene and emergency meeting to take place at the school. The last board member insists they wait until the president is done talking to police.
That night, the board convenes but the president isn’t allowed on school grounds. Your yes votes were told to show up at 6p. The last no board member was told the meeting was at 6:30 and the president was told 7p. The president shows up at 6.30p with the No board member, i guess they talked to each other. When the guard doesn’t allow the president in, his buddy refuses to go in as well. You walk up and the board member demands to talk to you. You let him but you are going to keep your distance from the criminal. You inform him that the principal is going to be arrested. The school is already under your control. The old principal hasn’t stepped foot on school grounds, the teachers who liked him have been fired or placed on leave until they can be fired. The board has the votes it needs to make you the new president and if it doesn’t meet quorum without him he’ll be dragged into the meeting long enough for his vote to not matter.
He could say no. None of the evidence you’ve fabricated will hold up long anyway. But in that time, you could make new evidence implicating him as well. And that may not hold up either. But none of the old regime has been competent enough to stop any of this so far. Eventually, whether he likes it or not, he can be replaced as well and so on and so forth. You could even exonerate your former rivals from any wrong doing by finding those lost receipts and discovering that your old bully drafted the emails as a prank when you left him alone in the detention room with the laptops. So story is flimsy but it won’t matter by the time that’s discovered.
Everyone except the board president enter the gymnasium. On the agenda is only one item. The emergency vote to oust the board president and make you the new board president. All in favor, say aye!
>Do they get the power just by occupying the building?
No, but if they occupy the building and the government can’t dislodge them, it is a *sign* they’ve taken power. Or in other words, if the new occupants of the building pick up the phone to the military, and the military follows those orders, they’ve successfully taken power.
Looking at unsuccessful coups is a bad way of conceptualising how a coup is supposed to work, because if the state were in the necessary position for a coup to work, it would work.
Generally, the idea of a coup is to seize control of the state. This needs the support of the people who make up the state apparatus; the army, the police, the courts, etc. If you seize control, and everyone below you agrees you are now in charge, successful coup. A constitution is just a piece of paper if nobody believes in it, so they just write a new one and everyone agrees that that new one is the legitimate constitution.
When it comes to international relations and how foreign nations react, it really depends. If the new government is more friendly to your interests than the old, and doesn’t look poised to collapse, they’ll likely be recognised in an attempt to normalise relations.
Coups generally succeed because they’re seen as more legitimate than the government they’re overthrowing. Coups only work in a democracy if something has gone very wrong, so let’s look at it from the point of view of the Germans trying the coup.
They don’t view the Federal Republic as legitimate. They think the state is an illegitimate Republic controlled by a sneaky cabal of bureaucrats. So all they need to do is seize control, and everyone will support them as liberators. Don’t buy into your own bullshit.
It’s not “This building makes us legitimate”, it’s “This building didn’t make the people before us legitimate”.
Latest Answers