Eli5: how does a pro chess player see 10+moves ahead? What does that look like?
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There’s 3 things people could say when they mean this:
1. It is the opening, and they have memorized 10+ moves deep in the relevant variations. This is relatively easy because both players have memorized stuff, and if the opponent goes off script they’ll be punished. Like if you sacrifice your queen I wouldn’t have “seen” that, but I’d still say I see 10 moves deep because I know I’m winning there without even thinking.
2. It is an endgame, or some other forced combination. So the possibilities don’t branch very far.
3. They are exaggerating to impress the non-chess player 🙂
In most cases, players are looking 2-4 moves ahead. They are mentally tuning out branches (e.g. that move loses the queen so we don’t need to think further).
Players also memorize certain patterns that recur. Like if I see your pawn is 6 moves from the end of the board and mine is 5 moves, I can easily “see” 6 moves deep (we both push our pawns for 5 moves and then i arrange my queen to capture your pawn exactly as it becomes queen). In many situations we can string such sequences together which effectively lets me consider how the board will look 10 moves away.
Finally, players make moves that will matter in 10+ moves, but they might not know exactly how. For example, if I force you to move a pawn on the right side of the board, at some point your king will probably be hiding behind that pawn–since it moved that will then be a weak point.
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