eli5: how does probability works?

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In a game where a guy has a 20% win probabiliy in each round. What’s the probabiliy for him to win at least one time after six attempts? It can’t be 120%. I know there is a way to calculate this but idk.

In: Mathematics

7 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

In problems like this, it’s easiest to look at the probability he never wins. For each game, he has a 20% of winning, so he has an 80% chance of losing. If he plays 6 games, then that’s (80%) * (80%) * (80%) * (80%) * (80%) * (80%) = 26.2% that he loses all of them. Then there’s a 73.8% chance that he *doesn’t* lose them all, which is just the probability that he wins at least one.

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