eli5: if a certain phenomenon occurs in 5% of a sample, does that mathematically mean it’s 5% likely to happen for any member of said sample? if yes, how?

Question

eli5: if a certain phenomenon occurs in 5% of a sample, does that mathematically mean it’s 5% likely to happen for any member of said sample? if yes, how?

In: 1

Answer 1

In general the distribution does not tell you anything about a single member.
It only tells you that 5% percent of the sample belongs to a certain class.
But nothing about the instances them selfs.
(Assuming the sample actually represents the underlying distribution)

If 10% of the students of computer science are female, it does not mean, that there is a 10% chance for every student to become female when studying cs.
That was already decided before they began to study.

So the information is a one way street.