eli5 Japan population crisis

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How is Japan in such a big pickle with the population shrinking. If an economy is based on a kids being born so they grow and sustain the aging population, how did Japan, a country known for their meticulous approach to everything, got themselves in this situation. For sure they must have seen it coming 20-30 years ago.

What went wrong? If they got it worn, how do we have it right? With the government not providing any kind of meaningful incentives for families to have kids, when will the 24th hour come for the rest of us?

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Governments have their limitations. This is one of the basic principles of free market capitalism. Recent history shows that governments can do some good but also get things really wrong when they try to centrally plan economies.

No government in the world today (yet?) has been able to force their populations to have kids although some have tried to incentivize it. This appears to be a line that no society crosses. Unfortunately, these incentives have generally proven to not be very effective.

Beyond this, tackling this subject gets into the perilous areas of social engineering, religious predisposition and gender equality. Some will claim that loss of “family values” are a big factor, or the relative irreligiosity of youth. Women participating in the workforce, for example, is cited as both necessary for gender equality and yet also the reason for lowered fertility. It is hardly surprising that society (not to mention governments) don’t really know how to deal with this matter.

It is also pretty standard for most societies in developed economies to believe that (higher) education is necessary for future success. And higher education is expensive and time consuming. Having young people (especially women) be in school for 20 years before entering the job market and then taking 10 years to build a career puts them at the edge of the biological window for reproduction unless they are willing to sacrifice time off their careers for at least initial child rearing OR risk having children in their late 30’s (mostly safe but still more risky) or 40’s (very much more risky)

There are no simple or low cost solutions. These issues are very tricky to navigate and slow to show results.

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