I have a truly burning question.
If you pick a number 1-10 100 times completely randomly and each number has a 10% chance of being picked each time (so picking a 7 once doesn’t decrease the likelihood of picking it on the next try) why won’t you end up with 10 of each number?
In: 1
Because your brain (and my brain and everyone else’s brains) is really dumb about instinctively thinking about probability. We naturally expect things to even out but that’s only generally true and only for trying lots of times. Plus a bit of magical thinking that our knowledge changes how reality works.
The important thing in your example is that each time you pick a number, your process doesn’t know or care what the previous results were. If your first pick was a six, you’re right to think the next one won’t be a six but that’s only true because there’s only one result that’s a six and nine that are not–just like in the first pick. Getting a second six didn’t become less likely even though it feels like it should.
The same thing happens in the rest of your trials. At no point does the universe go “Uh oh, there haven’t been enough twos. Better squeeze a couple more in before the end.” In fact, the only way to guarantee exactly 10% of each number is to have an infinite number of picks.
Latest Answers