Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%
So how does probability actually work in this context.
Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?
In: 3
>If we say a character has a 1% pull chance.
Then after a single pull, there is a 1% chance to get them. This is true for any single pull. Your first pull has a 1% chance, your 100th pull has a 1% chance, and your 472nd pull has a 1% chance.
>After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
There is an 86% chance that you will get at least one of those 1% characters within 200 pulls.
* Your 199th pull had a 1% chance, your 200th pull has a 1% chance, and your 201st pull will have a 1% chance. Same as above. Nothing changed.
* But what are the odds of *not* getting a single character **after all 200 pulls**? They’re .99^(200), or 0.1339, or 13.39%.
* So if there’s a 13.39% chance of “didn’t get a single one”, then every other possible outcome combined are the remaining 86.61%. And in every one of those, you got at least 1 **from all 200 pulls combined**.
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