Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%
So how does probability actually work in this context.
Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?
In: 3
Yes you are more likely If the character has a consistent 1% pull chance and you do 200 pulls you would have a 86.6% chance of getting at least 1 successful pull, whereas with a single pull you only have a 1% chance of getting 1 successful pull
The math to calculate that is somewhat complicated but this situation is called a Binomial Distribution. When you have ~n~ trials (200 in your case) with probability ~p~ of success (0.01 in your case)
Of course if you do 200 pulls and don’t happen to get the character (which will happen 13.4% of the time you do 200 pulls) then you have gained nothing probability wise and your next 200 pulls will still have the same 86.6% chance of getting at least 1 character. What I mean is that even if you miss 1,000,000,000 pulls the next pulls aren’t more likely than normal to be successful
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