Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%
So how does probability actually work in this context.
Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?
In: 3
Its like shuffling a deck of 100 cards with 1 Joker and hoping you find the Joker with 1 pull, except if you pick a non-joker card it doesn’t leave the deck but is reinserted in a random position. Pulling cards won’t increase your chances since the deck doesn’t become thinner as you pull, thats a Gambler’s Fallacy. However, pulling for the joker more will technically make it seem like it increases the likelihood of a 1 in 100 chance event to happen, which is why people get addicted to gambling.
Since you mentioned it, lets use a gacha game as an example which conveniently has a 1% chance of getting a 5* (highest rarity) character, Fate Grand Order.
Lets say you want to get a 5* character, it doesn’t matter who:
* If you make 1 pull, theres a 1% chance this character will show up.
* If you make 200 pulls, that doesn’t give you a 200% chance of getting the character, but 200 individual 1% chances.
* 10-pulls don’t increase the chances either, it just speeds up the process.
However, in the context of gacha games, lets make it more difficult. Lets say you want to get a specific 5* character from FGO (lets say Altria Pendragon) from the gacha. Although the rates for a 5* character is 1 out of a 100 (1%), from what i can see in the game right now Altria Pendragon has a 0.029% chance of being pulled. Idk how to express that in math but you should get the idea.
That being said, back to gacha games, there are varying gacha systems. For example in Genshin Impact you are guaranteed a 5* character after around 90 pulls and the rates increase after around 75 pulls. In Fate Grand Order, the gacha system is ruthless as there is no pity or way for the rates to come into your favor. So to answer the question of whether or not pulling enough times will make it more likely to get the character you want, it depends on the game.
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