Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%
So how does probability actually work in this context.
Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?
In: 3
Think about it as pre-committing to a course of action. If you commit to only 1 pull, your chance of success is 1%. If you commit to 200 pulls, your chance of success is about 87% (the way to calculate this is that you have a .99^200 percent chance of failing every time. This is about 13%, so in the remaining outcomes, you succeed at least once).
In a simple game, your history of success or failure at the time you make this commitment does not change these probabilities. If you just pulled 200 times and did not get the character, well then you’ve gotten unlucky, but probability is a cruel mistress, and there’s no mechanism to “balance out” your luck going forward.
In more complex games, there may be hidden routines that *do* actually change the probability of drops based on your inputs. It’s pretty common for games to automatically drop a rare thing if a player has a particularly long unlucky streak, though you typically can’t guarantee that it’s the specific rare thing you wanted. Just remember that all of this is being programmed *by people who want your money*, so any deviations from standard probability are meant to induce you to give them more money, often by manipulating you psychologically. Be careful.
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