Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%
So how does probability actually work in this context.
Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?
In: 3
Assuming you have 1% chance of getting a character on each pull, independently of previous pulls results.
You have, for example, 40% of getting it at least once in 50 pulls
Before starting these 50 pulls, there’s 40% chance you’ll get it at least once.
Once you started these 50 pulls, and made like, 20 of them so far, and got him already : there’s not 40% chance anymore, but 100% chance you’ll get it at least once in these 50 pulls (given that you just got it once)
Different scenario, say you started these 50 pulls, made 20 of them so far, still have 30 to go and haven’t got the character yet. There’s not 40% chance you’ll get it in the remaining 30 pulls. There’s less (26%).
That 40% probability of getting the character at least once in these 50 pulls, is valid before starting the 50 pulls. Once you started them, the probability that you’ll get the character at least once in these 50 pulls, evolves depending on what the results on the first pulls are (it diminishes the more you pull without getting the character yet, and raises and stays at 100% if you do get the character at some point in these 50 pulls)
To put it simply it’s called marginal laws. When you get new info, the probability of something happening, evolves depending on that info. You then have to use a marginal law, that takes into account this info, rather than the general law. For example, take a random person. There’s 40% chance they’ll get cancer at least once in their life. If you then learn that person is a dude, that probability raises to 50%. The relevant probability here, once you learn that the person is a dude, is the marginal probability, that takes into account the info that the person is a dude. Not the general probability.
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