Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.
If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%
So how does probability actually work in this context.
Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?
In: 3
Probability works the same way in about every context (as long as there’s nothing dishonest about posted odds): If an event has a 1% chance of happening, it has a 99% chance of it not happening.
It is possible to take the probability of an event happening at least once over multiple attempts. This can be done because the odds of multiple specific things happening can be found by multiplying the chances together, and getting *at least* one is the same as the opposite of not happening every time, which is a specific result. So the odds of getting at least one 1% result out of 100 is about 63% (as the opposite of 100 failures is at 37%), and it increases if you take it over more attempts like you’ve realized.
But there’s a thing known as “[gambler’s fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)”. Basically, no matter what happens in the past it won’t change the next chance, even though we emotionally think it should. If you try a 1% chance action 99 times and fail 99 times, the 100th attempt has a 1% chance instead of 63%; the 99 times in the past no longer affect the probability. At this point, the 63% is the odds of getting a success in the *next* 100 attempts, even though the total number of attempts is more than 100.
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