eli5 probability in context of gacha games

Question

Hey everyone, i’m trying to understand probability.
If we say a character has a 1% pull chance. After 200 pulls is there any increased chance of getting said character.

If i work it out in terms of “chance of not having said character after 200 pulls” its a smaller chance the more pulls i work it out after. But the base chance per pull is still 1%

So how does probability actually work in this context.

Am i any more likely to recieve said character after x amount of pulls?

In: 3

Answer 1

Assuming a completely unbiased/ ideal gacha, increasing the number of pulls merely to approach the expected rate. At 1%, you’d expect 1 per 100, after 1000 pulls you’d expect 10, but it’s no guarantee. In the case of 1000 pulls you could very well end up with more or less than the expected 10.