I read in a paper that the chance of getting a hole in one are 12,500 to 1. The article continued that to get 4 holes in one is (1/125000) to the power of four.
Why does the chance decrease per attempt? The universe doesn’t know you’ve had one or two or three results already so why are increasing holes in one less likely?
I see that intuitively this might be the case, but I’m not fully convinced. Part of me believes that the chance of getting any number of holes in on should be 12,500 to 1.
In: 1
The chance per attempt doesn’t decrease, they stay independent events and this is the chance of a single hole-in-one.
If you want to know chance of 4 hole-in-ones, they all 4 must happen. And the chance of multiple things happening is always less as a single event.
If doesn’t matter if it is the same event multiple times, or multiple events.
There is a chance of your phone ringing this hour. There is a chance of a mail delivery tomorrow.
The chance of a mail delivery AND your phone rining is always less than the individual events. while the chance of a mail delivery OR your phone ringing are always higher than the individual events.
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