I read in a paper that the chance of getting a hole in one are 12,500 to 1. The article continued that to get 4 holes in one is (1/125000) to the power of four.
Why does the chance decrease per attempt? The universe doesn’t know you’ve had one or two or three results already so why are increasing holes in one less likely?
I see that intuitively this might be the case, but I’m not fully convinced. Part of me believes that the chance of getting any number of holes in on should be 12,500 to 1.
In: 1
I think you get the general concept but you’re misunderstanding what is being calculated.
>Why does the chance decrease per attempt?
It doesn’t. Each individual attempt has the same chance of being a hole in one. Your shot on the first hole has a 1 in 12,500 chance of going in. Your first shot on the second hole also has a 1 in 12,500 chance of going in, regardless of what happened on the first hole. The first shot of the third and fourth holes are also a 1 in 12,500 chance each.
The figure being calculated (the fraction to the 4th power) represents the odds of you getting a hole in one on the first hole AND getting a hole in one on the second hole AND getting a hole in one on the third hole AND getting a hole in one on the 4th hole. Just getting a hole in one on the fourth hole is your standard 1 in 12,500 odds, but the chances of getting 4 holes in one in 4 attempts are lower than any individual attempt.
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