I read in a paper that the chance of getting a hole in one are 12,500 to 1. The article continued that to get 4 holes in one is (1/125000) to the power of four.
Why does the chance decrease per attempt? The universe doesn’t know you’ve had one or two or three results already so why are increasing holes in one less likely?
I see that intuitively this might be the case, but I’m not fully convinced. Part of me believes that the chance of getting any number of holes in on should be 12,500 to 1.
In: 1
The chance you’re getting a heads in a coin flip is 1/2. The chance you’re getting a heads in a SECOND coin flip is ALSO 1/2.
But the chance of getting heads in both flips is 1/4.
This is because with one coin flip, there are only two outcomes: heads and tails.
With BOTH coin flips, there are four outcomes:
Heads/heads
Heads/tails
Tails/heads
Tails/tails
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