Eli5, the British pound has hit an all time low. I am traveling to the UK next month from the US. If I change my US money to sterling will things cost me more or less?

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Or should i use my US credit card instead?

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Anonymous 0 Comments

It doesn’t really matter.

That’s not to say that changes in the exchange rate won’t affect you. It’s just that you can’t do anything about it.

You don’t have any idea how the exchange rate will move in the next month and neither does anyone else. If you trade your money now rather than later you have just as good a chance of getting locked into a bad exchange rate as you do of locking into a good one.

Why am I so confident in their ignorance? Simple. The exchange rate is set by the transactions of armies of currency traders. They spend all their time and resources trying to predict future exchange rates and then trade any time the current rate differs from that. Any claim that exchange rates will be higher or lower in the future is somebody claiming they are better at predicting exchange rate changes than the professional investors are.

If anyone wants to argue with that I’d suggest a simple challenge instead. Go invest in the FX market and see how you do. If you really think you know better than the pros, go ahead and leverage up. Mortgage your house to play the currency markets. Anyone who’s not willing to take that challenge is either less confident in their prediction than they claim or they’re broke (in which case you may not want to take economics advice from them either).

One of the advantages of using a CC is safety. There are a number of ways you can lose a pile of cash that you’re less vulnerable to with a CC. If you do so check the conditions to make sure they use a reasonable exchange rate and don’t tack on some crazy fees.

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