Eli5: What is the difference between correlation and causation
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Causation: A causes B; means that having A leads to B and not having A leads to not B through an invariant mechanism.
Correlation: A and B occur together; means that having A indicates B is more likely than not and not having A indicates B is less likely than not. No mechanism is needed, it’s a backward looking statistical fact.
Causation is predictive, if you see A in the future, you know B is coming. Correlation is unreliable for prediction, though it’s still often misused that way.
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