There are all kinds of situations like this, in diplomacy and in other professions, where it’d technically be easy to renege on your word. Prosecutors making deals, retailers promising rebates, sellers on eBay, consumers taking out credit or loans, etc, etc.
In every example, the reason you stick to your word is that your reputation is vital. Reneging even once could forever ruin it. After that, you’ll never again be able to get a loan, or make a good bargain with a defendent, or sell on eBay, or whatever it is you lied about. For a nation, losing all diplomatic credibility erases your most important tool of statecraft.
Relevent update, as of this morning: [Putin says more prisoner swaps possible.](https://politicalwire.com/2022/12/09/putin-says-more-prisoner-swaps-possible/)
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