When someone says “wow there was only a 30% chance of that happening!” But wouldn’t it be 100% because it DID happen and due to an (probably) infinite amount of unseen variables? In this way would this mean the universe is deterministic?
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The probability of you being dead in 2030 is not the same as you being dead in 2030 given that you died in 2029.
When you add more information the probabilities change.
For example, the probability of flipping heads twice in a row is 25%, but after you toss the coin once the probability changes to 0% (if you got tails) or 50% (if you got heads).
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