When someone says “wow there was only a 30% chance of that happening!” But wouldn’t it be 100% because it DID happen and due to an (probably) infinite amount of unseen variables? In this way would this mean the universe is deterministic?
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I’m going to skip over “the universe is deterministic” because as far as I’m concerned it’s impossible to prove either way: we could be living in a simulation for all we know. What I can say is even if it is deterministic it’s impossible for us to understand how, so it might as well be random.
In terms of past events probabilities, I think the easiest way to compare is to consider a coin flip. You flip once, it’s tails. That was 50:50. So does that mean the next flip is guaranteed heads? Obviously not, it’s still 50:50.
Just because something happened doesn’t mean it was lways guaranteed. There were a large number of unknown variables at play which we simply have no way of understanding. Depending on who you ask at a (sub?) Atomic level it may even be truly random and influencing the coin flip.
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