When someone says “wow there was only a 30% chance of that happening!” But wouldn’t it be 100% because it DID happen and due to an (probably) infinite amount of unseen variables? In this way would this mean the universe is deterministic?
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Think of it this way. If you flip a coin and it comes up Heads you would still say “There was a 50% chance of that happening” and not “there was a 100% chance of that happening”. Sure there was a 100% chance that it DID happen but that doesn’t affect the original likelihood that it happens, or the likelihood of it happening again.
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