eli5 When it comes to probabilities of past events

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When someone says “wow there was only a 30% chance of that happening!” But wouldn’t it be 100% because it DID happen and due to an (probably) infinite amount of unseen variables? In this way would this mean the universe is deterministic?

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Some things are deterministic. E.g. if you built a sufficiently accurate machine to flip a coin in the exact same way multiple times in a row, it could get the same face every time.

But there are some physical phenomena, particularly at the quantum level, which do appear to be truly probabilistic. Perhaps we simply lack understanding of how the universe really works.

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