Eli5: why are estimated budgets for big construction projects always wrong and end up spending more than expected? Why can’t we get better at these estimates?
In: Economics
Because the initial estimate of schedule and cost are always success-oriented in order to get the project green-lit. If you include too much margin for problems, you get told that you’re a pessimist and to cut it down or the project won’t be approved. Then once you’re in execution and unforseen problems arise, you start to slip schedule and have cost overruns. The larger and more complex the project, the number of issues and their impact goes up exponentially.
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