Eli5: why are estimated budgets for big construction projects always wrong and end up spending more than expected? Why can’t we get better at these estimates?
In: Economics
Because every estimate, whether for cost or schedule, is trying to do something nobody is very good at: predicting the future. Estimating for these projects involves making guesses and assumptions that may not be able to be validated for *years*. Plus there are the completely unpredictable, random events that nobody sees coming. Do you think anyone estimating a 5 year project in 2018 anticipated a 2-year delay due to COVID? Or that a ship would crash into a bridge, shutting down a major port and delaying materials?
Latest Answers