eli5: Why are they telling me that there’s a recession coming when unemployment is low at 3.6 or .9 percent as of this last month?

Question

What the title says.

In: 0

Answer 1

Because [household saving rates are way down](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/household-savings-collapse-sparks-recession-fears-among-economists/ar-AA1dnjRx).

Because [short-term bonds are paying higher interest rates than long-term bonds](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/yield-curve-inverted-the-lowest-since-1981-what-it-means-for-yo.html).

Because the amount of US money in circulation is contracting. [This hasn’t happened since the Great Depression.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-money-supply-is-doing-something-not-seen-since-the-great-depression-and-it-may-signal-a-big-move-to-come-for-stocks/ar-AA1djNEZ)

That’s just off the top of my head, and I’m not even an armchair economist.