eli5: Why are they telling me that there’s a recession coming when unemployment is low at 3.6 or .9 percent as of this last month?

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What the title says.

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Someone is ALWAYS predicting a recession. This is important. No matter what, someone will always be predicting it.

Economists, and pundits generally don’t make headlines or news or anything when they are predicting things like slight ups and downs, or good times ahead or such. This isn’t interesting. People generally don’t take note of that, because there isn’t anything to do with that info other than keep going.

But predicting a decline is alarming! You could lose everything. In economics and finance, generally you don’t really care about good times any much as near as bad times. In good times you can make money, but in bad times, thats horrible because you could lose it all! Nothing is more frightening or important than that. Making money is cool, but look, you’re fine, but losing it will be the worst thing ever.

In much of this reporting and sentiment as you can see generally focuses on what to do in BAD times, less so thatn what to do in good times. In good times things are normal, but avoiding and predicting bad times makes news because its more impactful

None of this means a recession is coming, it only means that its generally far more interesting to talk of potential disaster than like, minor wins or losses, so voices that talk about it get more play

**tl;dr**: Bad times are much more impactful than good times, so the conversation is rarely tilted towards good and people predicting bad times get a lot of attention, no matter if they are right or wrong

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