Eli5: Why can’t earthquakes be predicted with accuracy?
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Because there are too many variables involved. We can get average slip rates and recurrence intervals for faults over long periods but that can only give us a rough idea of how long it’ll be before another. If a fault averages 5 mm/yr of slip, then maybe in 100 years an earthquake will happen and it’ll slip 0.5 m or maybe the earthquake hits in 1000 years and it slips 5 m.
It all depends on the regional stresses, other faults nearby, how “sticky” the fault is, and more. The best we can do right now is look at the long-term data, use high-precision GPS to monitor the movement of the plates on either side of the fault, and make some guesses about how big it can get and how long it’ll be before one of that size occurs. Seismologists and others are working on forecasting earthquakes, but there are just so many variables that we simply don’t have the capability to accurately measure and/or account for.
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