Eli5: Why can’t earthquakes be predicted with accuracy?
In: 2
Earthquakes happen the same way ropes snap; you know the robe is overstressed but you don’t know how long it can hold out.
Other earthquakes can momentarily or permanently transfer their load into a target. It’s like if a snake rope tired to the heavy load breaks. The other types tied to the heavy now have to make up the difference .
To understand more clearly get a hard bake, as opposed to soft, cookie. Snap it at half as carefully as you can. Now put both halfs of the cookie on a flat smooth surface and mate the cookie back together. Now slide one of the cookie segments along the other one. Maybe do the exercise with a couple cookies to get a fair feel. You know the interface between the cookies will give way and crumble, but you don’t know when.
The plates of the Earth’s crust mate like big cookies. Big jagged cookies.
And while some earthquake faults have a part up top, you can see, the two cookies rubbing together are doing that deep underground; several miles depth where we can’t actually measure or see their condition.
Latest Answers