This is probably really stupid but why cant I bet 100 on a close sports game game for example and if I lose bet 200 on the next one, it’s 50/50 so eventually I’ll win and make a profit
In: 4566
You can. But very, very, very quickly you will be into huge sums.
Even if you start at a single dollar, by 10 bets you’re into $1000.
So if you had started at $100, that’s $100,000 you’d be needing to find.
Sure, you might win one along the way but actually the odds aren’t even that great. Starting at 100, you’d be lucky to get past four or five such bets before starting to run out of money.
100… 200… 400… 800… 1600…
50% chance you lose that 100 on the first bet.
If you pass that, 50% chance you lose the 200 (so you’re now at three quarters failure chance, one quarter success chance). By just 5 bets, you’re at 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50%…. which is less than 3% chance of success (so 97% of people who try would never even get that far). Then 1.5%. Then 0.75%. and so on.
Eventually you’ll LOSE, guaranteed, and in a very short space of time, with the vast probability being that will happen before you see any significant gain.
It’s literally a prime example of the gambler’s fallacy. And if you don’t understand how/what/what that means, I suggest you never gamble even a penny.
Latest Answers