Its 11:30am and I wanted to check the forecast for this afternoon. One site says it’ll be a 45% chance of rain starting at 5pm, and another site says it’ll be clear until 8pm. How can it be so different when it’s only a few hours away?
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Have a look at windy.com and go the the compare function. You can see how the actual models differ. Often they agree that rain is coming, just not exactly when or how much.
The simple answer on why they disagree is that predicting the weather is really hard, there are a near infinite number of variables that feed into what will actually happen. Hence the apocryphal butterfly effect.
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