Eli5: Why do weather forecasts differ so much from one site to another?

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Its 11:30am and I wanted to check the forecast for this afternoon. One site says it’ll be a 45% chance of rain starting at 5pm, and another site says it’ll be clear until 8pm. How can it be so different when it’s only a few hours away?

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Anonymous 0 Comments

What i know is that all sites use the same datas and It depends on the algorithm (or whatever it is) that the sites use for calculating the probability of the weather. It depends on what the percentage means too, for examples in some sites “50% of rain in Dublin” means that it’s 100% sure that in half of the territory of Dublin will rain. In other sites it means that you have the 50% of the chance that’s raining in all the territory and this is very confusing because it could mean that maybe will rain or maybe not in every part of the city.

Maybe I’m wrong, i’m not an expert, but this is what i found when i was asking the same question.

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