Iran could develop nuclear weapons any time they want. Practically any country with a domestic civilian nuclear industry, and particularly any country with the ability to enrich uranium domestically, could make weapons relatively easily. It’s basically as simple as running the fuel used for nuclear reactors in a centrifuge for a much longer time to make a purer fuel, and then attaching the warhead to a delivery system (which Iran already has).
The reason Iran has not yet developed nuclear weapons is because they do not want them (at least at this precise moment). There would be a guarantee of Israeli escalation, Saudi Arabia would probably try to get nuclear weapons too, and they would become more isolated internationally than they already are. Their current strategy is what’s called “nuclear hedging”—basically signaling to other countries that they could develop nuclear weapons if they want to, but not actually taking the final step and developing them.
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