Immediate counterexample: The gouvernment of Yemen lost the capital city years ago, and they haven’t fallen yet.
It usually works the other way round: Gouvernments tend to defend their capital city with everything they have.
Not only because te capital is usually economically and logistically and symbolically important but also because of the trivial fact that the families and friends of the people in the gouvernment usually live there.
So, “the capital city falling” is often synonymous with “there is not much of a defending army left in the country”.
But none of these things are a given. For example, if someone managed to take over the gouvernment buildings in D.C. through a surprise airborne attack or something, you can be sure that the rest of the country wouldn’t just crumble because of that.
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