Seeing lots of people here saying it’s meant to suggest an erect dick and means, pretty literally, “Fuck you.” Might be true, but I’ll chime in with another story I’ve heard, though I’m not sure if this is historically vetted or a folk origin story.
In medieval warfare, prisoners of war were often released (killing them might have created more of an uproar than the country wanted to deal with) but might be marked or punished in ways to make them unfit to fight again. So a swordsman might have his right arm broken and poorly set so it would never be strong enough to wield a sword in battle again. Similarly, an archer might have their middle finger or fingers cut off so they’d be ruined as archers. In either case, the released prisoner would be able to take up common labor in the future but never be an effective soldier again — a reasonably fair punishment, as standards of the day went.
So, an upraised middle finger might then signal: “Ha! I’ve never been captured and am still totally capable of grabbing a weapon and fucking you up!”
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